“The United Nations top climate committee just admitted that its own projections were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!”

In a May 16, 2026 Truth Social post, President Trump said the U.N.'s top climate committee had just admitted that its own projections, known as RCP8.5, were WRONG.

The post misrepresents a routine scientific update. RCP8.5 was always labeled a low-probability, high-impact worst case, not a prediction. An April 2026 paper narrowed the range of plausible scenarios because, 15 years on, some paths became clearer, and because the world moved away from coal and toward cheaper renewables. The scientists behind the work, and the IPCC, said it does not undercut climate science; the IPCC noted it did not even produce the scenarios.

The update also does not mean warming is not serious. Researchers say the lowest plausible path now runs warmer than before, and the world is currently tracking toward roughly 2.5 to 3 degrees C of warming by 2100, enough for substantial damage. Retiring one extreme scenario is a sign of limited progress, not proof the problem is fake.