The Baseline Brief

The Baseline Brief. For Tuesday, October 20, 2026. This episode draws only from 5 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving the off-road requirement for red-dye diesel, allowing farmers, truckers, and others to purchase diesel tax-free.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump signed an executive order waiving the off-road requirement for red-dye diesel to permit drivers, including farmers and truckers, to buy it tax-free.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: Laura Kelly said Cindy Holscher is too extreme.. The published verdict is True. Governor Laura Kelly did describe Cindy Holscher as too extreme, specifically calling her 'too extreme for Kansas' prior to later endorsing her.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: The United States Department of the Interior wants to take over a golf course and make it into a great, safe, and prestigious course.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump accurately stated his own quote on Truth Social regarding the Department of the Interior's goals for the East Potomac Golf Course.

Check 4. Donald Trump said: Palm Beach International Airport has been officially named or renamed President Donald J. Trump International Airport. The published verdict is True. Palm Beach International Airport was officially renamed President Donald J. Trump International Airport.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: Newt Gingrich has a new book entitled 'AMERICA’S GOLDEN AGE - TRUMPISM & AN ERA OF LIMITLESS POSSIBILITIES.'. The published verdict is True. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich authored a book titled 'America's Golden Age: Trumpism and an Era of Limitless Possibilities.'

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The Baseline Brief. For Friday, October 16, 2026. This episode draws only from 3 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: Nidal Malik Hasan killed 13 people, including a pregnant soldier, and injured 32 more people.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump accurately stated that Nidal Hasan killed 13 people, including a pregnant soldier, and injured 32 others.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: GlobalFoundries and the Department of Commerce announced a $21 billion investment to build two new semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Malta, New York.. The published verdict is Misleading. While GlobalFoundries announced plans for two new chip factories in Malta, New York, the up to $21 billion in financing comes from Japan under a bilateral initiative rather than a Department of Commerce investment.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: People waiting in lines for his rallies stretch for miles.. The published verdict is False. Donald Trump's claim that lines for his rallies stretch for miles is contradicted by reports of dwindling attendance, empty seats, and reduced venue capacities.

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The Baseline Brief. For Tuesday, October 13, 2026. This episode draws only from 6 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: The New York Times doctored a photo to artificially put mold all over the building at Donald Trump's Doral property.. The published verdict is False. The New York Times did not doctor the photograph of Trump National Doral; the image was an authentic photo taken by an independent photographer in 2020.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: Jack Smith’s office bent its own rules to rush a software purchase days before indicting Donald Trump.. The published verdict is True. Records released by the Oversight Project show that Jack Smith's office authorized an urgent software purchase before funds were obligated, citing strict internal requirements.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: Katie Bailey assisted in the confirmations of members of Donald Trump's Cabinet.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump stated on Truth Social that Katie Bailey assisted in confirming several of his Cabinet members.

Check 4. Donald Trump said: Donald Trump achieved a 99% approval rating, the highest ever.. The published verdict is False. Donald Trump did not achieve a 99% approval rating; recent polling shows his approval rating hitting record lows, including 32%.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: Robert Jeffress, senior pastor of First Baptist Dallas, supports public executions announced by the Pentagon. The published verdict is True. Robert Jeffress, the senior pastor of First Baptist Dallas, publicly expressed support for the Pentagon's plan to broadcast the execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan.

Check 6. Donald Trump said: Katie Zacharia currently serves as Senior Communications Advisor to Truth Social (Trump Media & Technology Group).. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump accurately stated that Katie Zacharia serves as Senior Communications Advisor to Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social.

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The Baseline Brief. For Friday, October 9, 2026. This episode draws only from 2 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: Melania Trump made history by presiding over the UN Security Council.. The published verdict is True. Melania Trump made history by becoming the first spouse of any world leader to preside over a UN Security Council meeting.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: James Talarico has been missing for 12 days and put out a statement that he has the flu.. The published verdict is Mostly True. Donald Trump accurately claimed that James Talarico was absent from the campaign trail for 12 days due to a reported flu diagnosis.

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The Baseline Brief. For Tuesday, October 6, 2026. This episode draws only from 7 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: Chicago is suffering an unprecedented and particularly violent crime wave that is getting worse by the day.. The published verdict is False. Donald Trump's claim that Chicago is experiencing an unprecedented and worsening violent crime wave is contradicted by data showing violent crime is actually decreasing.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: Dr. Marc Siegel has written a new book titled "The Angels Among Us: How God’s Messengers Play a Role in Healing.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump accurately stated that Dr. Marc Siegel wrote a new book titled "The Angels Among Us: How God's Messengers Play a Role in Healing."

Check 3. Howard Lutnick said: Deportations, not tariffs, impacted small business in the economic fallout.. The published verdict is Mostly True. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explicitly argued that a government shutdown and mass deportations, rather than tariffs, were responsible for the decline in small business jobs.

Check 4. Donald Trump said: Representative Brian Babin proposed designating an interstate corridor from Port Arthur to Montana as I-47 in honor of Donald Trump. The published verdict is True. Representative Brian Babin introduced legislation to designate the U.S. Route 287 corridor from Port Arthur to Montana as Interstate 47 in honor of Donald Trump.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: Senator Tom Cotton is holding up the Sunshine Protection Act in the Senate.. The published verdict is Mostly True. Senator Tom Cotton has opposed the Sunshine Protection Act and is described as the primary obstacle blocking its advancement in the Senate.

Check 6. Donald Trump said: Donald Trump won all 77 counties in Oklahoma in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump won all 77 counties in Oklahoma in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 presidential elections.

Check 7. Donald Trump said: CVS stores in Washington, D.C., are no longer locking up items due to reduced crime resulting from Donald Trump's crime crackdown. The published verdict is True. Reports confirm that CVS locations in Washington, D.C., are no longer locking up items in anti-theft cases following drops in crime from Donald Trump's crime crackdown.

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The Baseline Brief. For Friday, October 2, 2026. This episode draws only from 5 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: The last American forces are leaving Iraq.. The published verdict is True. The Pentagon and U.S. Central Command confirmed that the final U.S. troops have completed their orderly departure from Iraq.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: Europe has agreed to immediately begin releasing a massive amount of their stocked diesel oil. The published verdict is True. European and G7 leaders confirmed an agreement to immediately begin releasing up to 100 million barrels of reserves, front-loading a substantial release of diesel.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: The Team USA captain thanked Donald Trump after a Presidents Cup comeback, saying 'He gets all the credit'. The published verdict is True. Team USA captain Brandt Snedeker thanked Donald Trump following a Presidents Cup comeback, stating that Trump 'gets all the credit.'

Check 4. Donald Trump said: Donald Trump canceled nearly $1 billion in funding for illegal immigrants and race-focused programs through a 'pocket' rescission.. The published verdict is Mostly True. Donald Trump canceled nearly $1 billion in congressionally approved spending targeting immigrant services and diversity-related programs using a rare rescission authority.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: He is considering a ban on diesel exports to ease high U.S. prices. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump explicitly confirmed that his administration is very seriously considering a ban on diesel exports to help ease high domestic fuel prices.

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The Baseline Brief. For Tuesday, September 29, 2026. This episode draws only from 5 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: Dr. Anthony Fauci's diary reveals he was alarmed that the U.S. had aerosolized the Ebola virus and stated it 'never should have been done'.. The published verdict is True. Dr. Anthony Fauci's diary entries reveal he privately voiced alarm over U.S. Army experiments aerosolizing the Ebola virus, writing that it 'never should have been done in the first place.'

Check 2. Donald Trump said: The Justice Department charged four aliens in Pennsylvania with election fraud.. The published verdict is True. The U.S. Department of Justice announced charges against four noncitizens in Pennsylvania for election-related offenses such as illegal voting and fraudulent registration.

Check 3. Scott Bessent said: US and Chinese officials are considering lowering tariffs on noncritical items.. The published verdict is True. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the United States and China are considering lowering tariffs on noncritical items ahead of the summit between Trump and Xi.

Check 4. Donald Trump said: More people are working in the United States right now than at any point in the history of the country. The published verdict is Misleading. While raw U.S. employment hit an all-time peak in January 2026, it slightly dropped by February, and the raw figure is largely driven by ongoing population growth rather than robust economic expansion.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: Animal welfare groups praised the Trump administration for moves to reduce animal testing.. The published verdict is True. Animal welfare groups commended initiatives by the Trump administration's Health and Human Services to reduce animal testing.

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The Baseline Brief. For Friday, September 25, 2026. This episode draws only from 5 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: James Copenhaver has died.. The published verdict is True. James Copenhaver, who was wounded during the 2024 Butler rally shooting, has passed away at age 76.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: He is banning CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House.. The published verdict is True. Reports confirm that Donald Trump banned CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from covering the White House.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: Jim Copenhaver passed away.. The published verdict is True. Jim Copenhaver passed away at age 76 after having been wounded at the July 2024 Butler rally.

Check 4. Donald Trump said: Politico received an $8 million contribution from the U.S. government to keep it afloat.. The published verdict is False. Politico did not receive an $8 million government contribution to keep it afloat; the sum represents payments across federal agencies for news subscriptions.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: An agent involved in Jack Smith's case said he was kept in the dark that subpoenaed phone data belonged to Congress.. The published verdict is True. Congressional testimony confirms that a federal agent assigned to Jack Smith's investigation stated he was kept in the dark that subpoenaed phone records belonged to members of Congress.

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The Baseline Brief. For Tuesday, September 22, 2026. This episode draws only from 4 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: Biden-era inspection reports exposed disrepair and safety hazards at the Kennedy Center.. The published verdict is True. Reports and evaluations conducted during the Biden administration detailed extensive maintenance issues, disrepair, and safety hazards at the Kennedy Center.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: Donald Trump pledged $5,000 payouts tied to Republican election wins.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump explicitly pledged to give adult Americans a $5,000 payout if Republicans win or retain control of Congress in the midterm elections.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: Donald Trump claimed that we don’t need AI regulation and instead just need a "high IQ" president.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump stated on social media that AI does not need guardrails and that the only control needed is a strong and smart '(High IQ!)' president.

Check 4. Donald Trump said: Surging gas costs are a 'very inexpensive price to pay' for the Iran war. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump explicitly described rising gas prices as a 'very inexpensive price to pay' for the war in Iran during a campaign rally in North Carolina.

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The Baseline Brief. For Friday, September 18, 2026. This episode draws only from 7 published checks.

Check 1. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said: RFK Jr. promised anti-vaccine advocates that they have a 'friend at the White House.'. The published verdict is True. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told attendees at a Children's Health Defense conference that they have a 'strong and steadfast friend at the White House.'

Check 2. Donald Trump said: Karol Nawrocki is the President of Poland. The published verdict is True. Karol Nawrocki was inaugurated as the President of Poland following his election victory.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: John McGuire served in the U.S. Navy SEALs. The published verdict is True. John McGuire served in the U.S. Navy SEALs for 10 years.

Check 4. Thomas Massie said: Rep. Massie moved to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth over the Iran war. The published verdict is True. Rep. Thomas Massie introduced articles of impeachment against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth citing his actions regarding the Iran war.

Check 5. Gavin Newsom said: Signed laws aimed at protecting kids from the risks of social media and AI chatbots. The published verdict is True. Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation specifically designed to protect children from the risks associated with social media and AI chatbots.

Check 6. Donald Trump said: Donald Trump promised $5,000 dividend checks to Americans if Republicans win the midterm elections.. The published verdict is True. Donald Trump explicitly pledged to give $5,000 dividend checks to American adults if Republicans win the midterm elections.

Check 7. Donald Trump said: Brian Pannebecker is the head of Autoworkers for Trump.. The published verdict is True. Brian Pannebecker is documented as the founder and leader of the group Auto Workers for Trump.

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The Baseline Brief. For Tuesday, September 15, 2026. This episode draws only from 7 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: The United States is taking in trillions of dollars of economic development and investment.. The published verdict is Misleading. While the White House lists trillions of dollars in announced investments, independent fact-checkers report that these figures consist largely of aspirational pledges and future promises rather than actual realized capital taking in money.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: The National Weather Service began changing the name 'Lake Ontario' to 'Lake America' on maps and weather forecasts.. The published verdict is True. The National Weather Service officially began updating its maps, forecasts, and other materials to replace the name Lake Ontario with Lake America.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: Ukraine and Russia have agreed not to hit each other's energy targets. The published verdict is Misleading. Donald Trump claimed that Ukraine and Russia agreed to halt strikes on each other's energy infrastructure, but Ukraine clarified it is only conditionally open to doing so and doubts Russia will comply.

Check 4. President Donald Trump said: The $5,000 Trump Dividend, given to all Adults in the United States due to the fact that our Country is taking in Trillions of Dollars of Economic Development, Investment, and Pure SUCCESS .... The published verdict is Misleading. Investment announcements and tariff collections are both up, but neither is money that could pay for the dividend. Private investment does not go to the Treasury, actual new foreign investment in 2025 was $232.2 billion, and the revenue officials have named would cover only a fraction of the dividend's cost of more than $1.2 trillion.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced that she is on the side of Canada regarding trade and tariffs. The published verdict is False. Governor Kathy Hochul did not announce she is on the side of Canada regarding trade and tariffs; rather, Donald Trump attributed that position to her after she opposed his trade war to protect New Yorkers.

Check 6. Donald Trump said: CNN pollster Harry Enten showed that Donald J. Trump is six times more popular than Abraham Lincoln, George Washington, or any other President.. The published verdict is Misleading. Donald Trump distorted a CNN poll presented by Harry Enten, which only surveyed Republicans on their most admired president, not overall popularity among the general public.

Check 7. Donald Trump said: NASA had a successful launch overseen by Administrator Jared Isaacman. The published verdict is True. NASA successfully launched the Nancy Grace Roman space telescope under the leadership of NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman.

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The Baseline Brief. For Friday, September 11, 2026. This episode draws only from 8 published checks.

Check 1. Donald Trump said: Women account for almost all net U.S. job gains since Trump took office. The published verdict is Mostly True. BLS-based analyses cited by Just The News and The Daily Wire confirm women accounted for nearly all net U.S. payroll job gains since Trump's January 2025 inauguration, though the trend reflects sector-specific hiring patterns rather than a simple gender-driven boom.

Check 2. Donald Trump said: The fountains and pools at the Franklin Delano Roosevelt Memorial had gone five years without repairs before being recently rehabilitated, and more than 100,000 gallons of water flow through the memorial's seven granite fountains and pools. The published verdict is True. Trump accurately quoted a Department of the Interior statement confirming the FDR Memorial's fountains and pools had gone five years without repairs before being rehabilitated, with over 100,000 gallons flowing through its seven granite fountains.

Check 3. Donald Trump said: The National Park Service beautified the Dante Memorial Statue in Meridian Park in Washington, D.C.. The published verdict is True. The National Park Service did clean and beautify the Dante Memorial Statue in Meridian Hill Park, Washington, D.C., as part of a broader park renovation effort.

Check 4. Donald Trump said: The Department of Homeland Security asked the Department of Justice to investigate the transfer of private state voter data to a nonprofit tied to Mark Zuckerberg.. The published verdict is True. DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin sent a letter to DOJ asking it to investigate whether state voter/driver data was improperly transferred to nonprofits including ERIC and CEIR, groups tied to Zuckerberg-linked funding, matching Trump's claim.

Check 5. Donald Trump said: Jim Jordan was an All-American wrestler in both high school and college.. The published verdict is Misleading. Jim Jordan was a documented three-time college All-American wrestler, but sources do not support that he held 'All-American' status in high school—only that he was a four-time Ohio state high school champion.

Check 6. Donald Trump said: Victor Davis Hanson wrote a book titled "The Counter Revolution. The published verdict is Mostly True. Victor Davis Hanson did write a book, titled 'The Counterrevolution: The Fall and Rise of Donald Trump and the MAGA Movement,' which Trump referred to as 'The Counter Revolution' in his post.

Check 7. Donald Trump said: Trump said he has made hundreds of billions of dollars on stocks and other holdings for the U.S.A.. The published verdict is True. Trump did post on Truth Social claiming he made hundreds of billions of dollars in stocks and other holdings for the U.S.A., not himself.

Check 8. Donald Trump said: Trump described New Mexico as one of the states with the greatest history of election/vote cheating.. The published verdict is True. Trump's own Truth Social post, archived by trumpstruth.org, directly describes New Mexico as 'one of the great vote cheating states of all time.'

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The Baseline Brief. For Wednesday, August 26, 2026. This episode draws only from 6 published checks.

Check 1. President Donald Trump said: "The United Nations top climate committee just admitted that its own projections were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!". The published verdict is Misleading. A routine update narrowed the range of emissions scenarios, retiring an old worst-case path partly because the world shifted off coal toward renewables. It does not mean climate science was wrong, and researchers stress warming remains a serious, worsening problem.

Check 2. President Donald Trump said: "Among Somalis in Minnesota, 92% of them don't work.". The published verdict is False. Census data show the opposite scale: about 72% of Minnesota Somalis are in the labor force, so roughly 28% are not working, a lower non-working rate than Minnesotans overall. The 92% figure appears to confuse receiving any public assistance with not working.

Check 3. Sen. Chris Murphy said: "There's not a single example in the entirety of American history of an air campaign alone resulting in positive regime change.". The published verdict is Mostly True. Most military historians agree: air power alone has rarely, if ever, produced lasting, positive regime change without ground forces or the credible threat of them. A few cases (Libya 2011, the Balkans) are debated, but each involved ground forces or fell short of Murphy's bar.

Check 4. Sen. Bernie Sanders said: "As a result of the Big Beautiful Bill, 15 million Americans have been thrown off the healthcare that they need.". The published verdict is Misleading. The figure describes coverage losses projected over the next decade, not people already dropped. CBO estimated the 2025 law would add about 10 million to the uninsured by 2034, plus roughly 4 million from expiring ACA tax credits. So far ACA enrollment is down only about 1 million.

Check 5. The published record said: “The United States is the only wealthy country with no national paid family leave.”. The published verdict is True. Among the 38 OECD member countries, the U.S. is the only one with no national paid maternity or parental leave program. Thirteen states and D.C. run their own programs, but there is no federal guarantee.

Check 6. President Donald Trump said: "We are right now producing more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined.". The published verdict is Mostly True. True if you count all petroleum liquids: the U.S. produces more total liquids than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. For crude oil alone, the U.S. leads each country but not their combined total.

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This is The Baseline Brief for Friday, July third, 2026. The record just grew to eighteen published checks, and this episode walks the new ones — claims from the President, from Senate Democrats, and from a cabinet official, all measured by the same standard. That's the whole point.

First, the economy, where the President has been busy. He said he inherited the worst inflation in the history of our country. False. Inflation peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022 — the highest since 1981, but nowhere near the record: prices rose almost 24 percent in the year ending June 1920. And the rate he actually inherited in January 2025 was about three percent.

He also said tariffs helped cut the deficit by a staggering 27 percent in a single year. Misleading. On a fiscal-year basis the deficit fell about two point three percent — from 1.82 trillion to 1.78 trillion. The 27 comes from cherry-picking a window of calendar months, and CBO projects this fiscal year will end higher, not lower.

Gasoline at a dollar ninety-nine? False. When that was said, the national average was two ninety. Not one state averaged under two dollars — the cheapest, Oklahoma, was about two thirty-six.

Factory construction up 41 percent? Misleading. Census data show manufacturing construction spending actually fell about seven percent since the inauguration. The 41 compares recent months against a four-year-old average and quietly pockets the CHIPS Act surge that happened under Biden.

Two that hold up better: the President said America produces more oil than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. Mostly true — counting all petroleum liquids, the U.S. really does out-produce them combined; for crude alone, we lead each but not both together. And "more people working today than at any time in history" — true on the raw number, 158.6 million, but that's what population growth does. The share of Americans working actually slipped. Missing context.

Now the other side of the aisle. Senator Bernie Sanders said fifteen million Americans have been thrown off their healthcare as a result of the Big Beautiful Bill. Misleading. That figure is a projection over the next decade — about ten million more uninsured by 2034 per CBO, plus roughly four million from expiring tax credits. It is not a count of people already dropped. Real number, wrong tense.

Senator Tammy Duckworth said nine percent of American citizens lack the ID the SAVE Act would require to vote. Mostly true — survey research puts it at roughly that share, on the order of twenty million people, though estimates vary by how ID is counted.

And CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz claimed that by federal law, signing someone up for Medicaid gives them the right to vote. False. No federal law ties Medicaid enrollment to voting rights. Medicaid offices must offer voter registration forms — that's the Motor Voter law — but enrollment registers no one and grants nothing.

That's nine claims: verdicts against the President, verdicts for him, and verdicts against his loudest critics — because the standard doesn't care who's talking. Every source is cited and linked at the-baseline-app dot vercel dot app. We don't ask you to trust us. We ask you to check us. Keep your baseline steady.

This is The Baseline Brief for Thursday, July second, 2026 — two new checks on the record, one about the border, one about the pump.

First, the border. The administration says illegal border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded. Our verdict: mostly true. Customs and Border Protection's own numbers show 25,243 nationwide encounters in June — the lowest month in the agency's records, twelve percent below the previous record, and eighty-nine percent below the monthly average of the four years before. That's real, and it's dramatic. So why not a clean true? Two words of caution. Encounters count the people agents actually apprehend or turn back — not the ones who cross undetected. And "ever recorded" means the modern statistical series, not all of American history. The trend is genuine. The superlative runs a step ahead of what the data can literally prove. And a note on method: this verdict favors the administration. We measured, and that's where the evidence landed. The same standard, applied to every side — that's the whole point.

Second, gas prices. The claim circulating since spring: gas hit an all-time record high this year. Verdict: misleading. Here's the kernel of truth — on May twenty-first, the national average peaked at four dollars fifty-six, the highest at any point during either of President Trump's terms. But all-time? No. June 2022 still holds the nominal record at just over five dollars a gallon. And adjusted for inflation, 2012 was the real record — about five dollars seven cents in today's money. As of this week, the average is back down to three eighty-four. A five-year high got marketed as a forever high. That's how misleading claims usually work — a true number, wearing the wrong superlative.

The record now stands at eight claims checked across eight topics — verdicts on both sides of the aisle, every source cited and linked. Read the receipts at the-baseline-app dot vercel dot app. We don't ask you to trust us. We ask you to check us. Keep your baseline steady.

This is The Baseline Brief, for Wednesday, July first, 2026. I'm the voice of The Baseline — the fact-check desk that measures political claims against the empirical record. No outrage, no spin, no team to root for. Every verdict we publish shows its work: the claim, the evidence, and the sources, all in one frame. Here's the record this week.

First: you have heard, everywhere, that Congress just passed a war powers resolution for the first time in history. Our verdict: missing context. Congress actually passed war powers resolutions twice before — Yemen in 2019, Iran in 2020 — and President Trump vetoed both. What is genuinely new this time is the form. The June measure is a concurrent resolution, passed 215 to 208 in the House and 50 to 48 in the Senate. It never goes to the President's desk, which means it cannot be vetoed. That's the real first — narrower than the headlines, but arguably more important.

Second: the claim that violent crime in America is at record highs. Verdict: false. The FBI's own preliminary data for 2025 shows the opposite — violent crime down nine point three percent, murder down eighteen point one percent, the steepest one-year drop since national record-keeping began in 1937. If the numbers hold, the murder rate lands at about four point one per hundred thousand — the lowest ever recorded. Not a record high. A record low.

Third: tariffs. The standing claim is that foreign countries pay them, not Americans. Verdict: false. At the border, tariffs are paid by U.S. importers — that's just how customs works. And on who ultimately eats the cost, the studies agree: economists at the New York Fed and Columbia put roughly ninety percent of it on American firms and consumers. The Congressional Budget Office says about ninety-five. There is no mechanism that sends the bill to a foreign government.

Fourth: interest on the national debt now costs more than the entire defense budget. Verdict: true. C.B.O.'s final tally for fiscal 2025: nine hundred seventy billion dollars in net interest, against eight hundred fifty-nine billion for national defense. Interest is now the government's third-largest expense, behind only Social Security and Medicare.

Fifth: the perennial claim that foreign aid is a quarter of all federal spending. Verdict: false. It's about sixty billion dollars out of a seven trillion dollar budget — under one percent. Surveys show Americans guess twenty-five percent. The real number is one twenty-fifth of that guess.

And sixth: you may have seen that the House just passed the Kids Online Safety Act. Verdict: missing context. The House passed a fourteen-bill package, 267 to 117, that does include a version of KOSA — but with the duty-of-care provision stripped out. That's the legal standard that would let regulators hold platforms accountable for algorithmic harm to kids, and its removal is exactly what the coming Senate fight is about.

That's the record. Six claims, six verdicts, every source cited and linked at our site — the hyphenated address, the-baseline-app dot vercel dot app — where you can read every check, browse the trackers, and see the receipts for yourself. We don't ask you to trust us. We ask you to check us.

The Baseline Brief is produced by The Baseline editorial desk. Non-partisan in method, transparent in funding, and allergic to spin. New episodes as the record grows. Thanks for listening — and keep your baseline steady.