Professional polling, Senate and Governor race averages, every state’s mail-ballot dates, and the claims shaping control of Congress — with the source and methodology visible at every step.
Kentucky begins sending mail ballots (approximate)
Professional polling
Where voters stand
Latest field date: Aug 28, 2026 · refreshed every 6 hours
U.S. House · generic ballot
If the congressional election were today
Democratic47.7%
Republican41.5%
Simple average of the latest nonpartisan poll from each pollster in the last 120 days. Equal weight; not a forecast.
Presidential approval
Donald Trump job approval
Approve41.3%
Disapprove55.5%
The same transparent one-poll-per-pollster rule. Different samples and methods still produce sampling and non-sampling error.
Generic ballot · past 10 months
DemocraticRepublicandots: individual polls · lines: 30-day trailing average
Each dot is one nonpartisan public poll from the VoteHub feed (one result per pollster per field date; where a pollster releases multiple versions, the larger two-party total is used). Lines are 30-day trailing averages computed by The Baseline. Percentages, not seat projections.
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the simple displayed averages; VoteHub does not endorse them.
Race by race
The seats that decide it
Closest polled races first · nonpartisan polls from the last 180 days
Senate today53 R · 45 D · 2 IEffective split 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats for outright control at 51 (Republicans hold the tie-breaking vice presidency). Four seats on the 2026 ballot are held by appointees: FL (Moody), OH (Husted), OK (Armstrong, not running) and SC (Graham Nordone). Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 seats up this year.
House today218 R · 212 D · 1 I · 4 vacantThe independent is Rep. Kevin Kiley (CA), who left the GOP in March 2026. Vacant seats: CA-14, FL-20 and GA-13 (last held by Democrats) and TX-23 (last held by a Republican). Relative to the 2024 result (220 R - 215 D), Democrats need a net gain of 3 seats for a 218-seat majority.
Averages cover the current top-two matchup only, from nonpartisan public polls, latest poll per pollster, equally weighted. Race pages list every poll counted. Sparse local polling means wider error than national averages.
The Baseline pulse
What readers want checked
Live reader survey0 responses
This is an opt-in survey of Baseline readers, not a representative public-opinion poll. It should not be compared with the professional polls above.
A neutral standard, not a false balance
We follow the evidence wherever it lands.
The Baseline does not force an equal number of negative verdicts for each party. It applies one published standard to every claim, links primary evidence, labels uncertainty, and keeps reader surveys separate from representative polling.