Michigan · General election, November 3, 2026
Matchup in the latest qualifying poll
Mike Rogers of Michigan, archival congressional portrait. U.S. Congress Biographical Directory.; Abdul El-Sayed campaign photograph, Abdul for Senate.
D +3.7 across 12 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Polls that tested other pairings, such as pre-primary hypotheticals, are left out of the table below as well. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
Official general-election candidate listing
Michigan Department of State · Reviewed Sep 15, 2026
Named candidates on the official list at the review date. Disqualified filings are excluded. Check the election office for revisions and write-in candidates.
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marist University ↗ | Oct 18, 2026 | — likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 48% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications ↗ | Oct 1, 2026 | 682 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 46% · Mike Rogers 41% · Lydia Christensen 3% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Sep 28, 2026 | 1,028 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 49% |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy ↗ | Sep 27, 2026 | 800 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 48% · Mike Rogers 43% · Lydia Christensen 1% |
| co/efficient ↗ | Sep 23, 2026 | 843 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 50% |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | Sep 22, 2026 | 605 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 49% · Mike Rogers 44% |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research ↗ | Sep 21, 2026 | 600 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 45% · Mike Rogers 40% · Lydia Christensen 1% |
| Suffolk University ↗ | Sep 20, 2026 | 500 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 47% · Mike Rogers 40% · Lydia Christensen 1% |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government ↗ |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.
| Sep 14, 2026 |
| 803 likely voters |
| Abdul El-Sayed 48% · Mike Rogers 45% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Sep 14, 2026 | 1,000 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 48.2% · Mike Rogers 45.7% · Lydia Christensen 0.5% |
| EPIC-MRA ↗ | Aug 28, 2026 | 600 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 47% · Mike Rogers 43% |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research/YouGov ↗ | Aug 20, 2026 | 779 likely voters | Abdul El-Sayed 50% · Mike Rogers 45% |
Michigan Senate race
