D +2.0 across 12 nonpartisan polls of this matchup
Latest poll per pollster from the last 180 days, equal weight, current top-two matchup only. Not a forecast — state polls are sparse and carry wider error than national averages.
2026 · U.S. SenateThe Baseline average
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
Texas · General election, November 3, 2026
Every poll counted
Recent nonpartisan polls
| Pollster | Field date | Sample | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slingshot Strategies ↗ | Aug 24, 2026 | 1,000 likely voters | James Talarico 48% · Ken Paxton 42% · Ted Brown 1% |
| The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin/YouGov ↗ | Aug 13, 2026 | 1,218 registered voters | James Talarico 42% · Ken Paxton 39% · Ted Brown 3% |
| Emerson College ↗ | Aug 10, 2026 | 1,000 likely voters | James Talarico 46% · Ken Paxton 47% |
| Wedgewood Polls ↗ | Jul 31, 2026 | 800 likely voters | James Talarico 48% · Ken Paxton 46% |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center ↗ | Jul 30, 2026 | 1,200 likely voters | James Talarico 47% · Ken Paxton 45% · Ted Brown 2% |
| ReconMR/Siena University ↗ | Jul 30, 2026 | 619 likely voters | James Talarico 47% · Ken Paxton 43% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research ↗ | Jul 27, 2026 | 1,006 registered voters | James Talarico 51% · Ken Paxton 48% |
| A2 Insights ↗ | Jun 28, 2026 | 618 likely voters | James Talarico 48.4% · Ken Paxton 46.1% |
| The New York Times/Siena University ↗ | Jun 27, 2026 |
Polling data via VoteHub Polling API, licensed CC BY 4.0. The Baseline computes the displayed average; VoteHub does not endorse it. Partisan and campaign-internal polls are excluded.